人民币汇率变动对中国—东盟双边贸易的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

汇率是影响一国对外贸易的重要因素之一,随着中国经济地位的提升,人民币汇率日益成为世界瞩目的焦点。自中国—东盟自由贸易区正式启动以来,中国与东盟十国的经贸往来迅猛发展,研究人民币汇率变动对中国与东盟贸易的影响有着越来越重要的意义。文章以1991年至2011年的相关数据建立了VAR模型,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等进行分析后发现,在短期内,人民币汇率变动对中国—东盟的双边贸易存在较大的影响,特别是我国从东盟国家的进口贸易对于人民币升值的反应比出口贸易更为敏感;而从长期看,汇率变动对于双边贸易的影响则比较微弱。

The Effect of CNY Exchange Rate Changes on the Sino-ASEAN Rrade A positive analysis based on the VAR model

Exchange rate is one of the key factors affecting the international trade in one country. As the growth of China＇ s economic power, the CNY exchange rate has been put at the world stage center. The Sino-ASEAN international trade is increasing rapidly with the establishment of CAFTA and changes of CNY exchange rate will bring more effects on the inter-trade. This paper makes a research by establishing a VAR model based on data from 1991-2011. The results shows that the change of CNY exchange rate will bring more uncertainty on Sino-ASEAN trade in short term than in long term. And the import from ASEAN countries will be affected more deeply that export.