2006年中国经济预测分析

本文从金融、财政、消费、投资以及进出口等五个方面分析了中国经济的运行态势,并预测了2006年的经济走向。2006年货币政策仍然会继续强调“稳健”,保持连续性和稳定性;财政政策将重点向解决民生和“三农”问题以及刺激消费和调整经济增长方式等方面倾斜;消费价格总水平涨幅在2%左右;投资结构和领域将发生改变,增长速度将会有所下降;出口将从超常规增长期向平稳增长期转变。2006年,中国经济将保持8.8%~9%左右的增长。

The Forecast of China's Economy in 2006

This paper analyzes the status quo of China's economy from five aspects:finance,public finance,consumption,investment and import and export.Moreover,it forecasts the trend of economic development for 2006.The results show that:(1) The monetary policy will still continue to emphasize "steadiness" in 2006,and keep continuity and stability;(2) The fiscal policy will pay more attention to people's livelihood problem,three rural issues,stimulate consumption and adjust the growth pattern of economy etc;(3) Consumption will still keep the growing trend with considerable adjustment occurring in the structure and about 2 percent rise on the general level of consumption price;(4) Influenced by the macro adjustment policies of the government and industry developing trend,the structure and field of investment is expected to undergo several change and the growth speed may descend;(5) Instead of the over-growth pattern in the past,the export will step on a new stage of steady growth in the following year with possible adjustment in the commodity structure of import and export,furthermore the foreign trade volume is expected to exceed 1 600 billion US dollars next year.In 2006,the China's economy will maintain the growth speed of about 8.8%~9%.