美国证券市场兴衰的非理性因素剖析

美国股市泡沫的膨胀和崩溃，无法完全用传统的金融理论和各种定价模型来说明，一些非理性因素对股市泡沫的形成和膨胀也有着重要的甚至决定的作用。从上世纪美国发生的四次股灾说明，非理性预期是股市泡沫形成的基础，其推动机制是庞氏骗局效应。此外，一些社会心理和行为，突发事件和随机因素，都对股市的兴衰起着推波助澜的作用。

An Analysis on the Irrational Factors about the Rise and Decline of Securities Market in U.S.A.

Inflation and collapse of the American stock - market bubble is unable to be explained completely with traditional financial theory and various kinds of pricing models. Some irrational factors play an important role in this. From the U. S. A stock calamities which took place four times in the last century, irrational expectancy is the basis of forming stock- market bubble. Furthermore, social psychology and action, paroxysmal incident and incidental factor plays a driving role to the rise and decline of the stock market.