金融危机下广东省的失业问题研究——基于对外贸易,外商直接投资对广东省就业影响的实证分析

利用广东省1987-2006年的年度数据,采用协整分析技术、误差修正模型,研究进出口贸易以及外商直接投资对就业产生的不同影响,得出出口、进口、FDI与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系,即长期稳定的关系的结论。广东省应鼓励和引导更多的国有企业、集体企业参与到对外贸易出口队伍中;及时制定相关政策,吸引外商直接向第三产业投资,从而创造更多的就业机会。同时,国内投资企业要充分引进稀缺的先进技术、设备与管理模式,培训人才,充分开发尚未利用的人力资源,刺激省内生产规模的扩大,以促进就业和经济的增长。

Study of Unemployment in Guangdong Province in Financial Crisis-Based on Empirical Analysis of Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investment to Guangdong Employment

According to the annual data 1987-2006 in Guangdong,by means of co-integration analysis and error correction model,this paper studied the influence of import and export trade and foreign direct investment,and came to conclusion that there existed unique co-integration relationship between export,import,FDI and employment,viz.long-term stable relationship.Hence,more state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises should be involved in foreign trade export,relevant policy should be established to attract f...