| Abstract: | Summary In the light of the probable market development of new multimedia products and services, domestic demand for media and communications goods in the year 2010 will be around three times its level at the start of the 1990s. The increase in private sector demand will be somewhat higher than general economic expansion, the rise in private household demand will be slightly higher than the growth of private consumption. This is, however, contingent on solutions being found by 1998 for the technical and regulatory questions that are as yet still unresolved. What is decisive for the pace at which the telecommunications infrastructure will develop is the degree of competitive and innovative pressure. German policy makers can contribute to this by ensuring that the (still publicly owned) Telekom AG sells off its cable TV networks. It would also seem important to restrict the time-consuming licensing procedure for broadcasting companies to programmes with a bearing on public opinion and to render the regulatory procedure more efficient by setting up a national body to perform this task.The number of employees in firms producing and distributing M&C technology will expand to a far lesser extent than domestic demand to the year 2010, largely due to productivity growth. Model calculations point to an increase of the order of 10% to around 2.1 million jobs. This means that the significant positive employment effects frequently forecast for the new M&C technologies can only come about if the potential for rationalisation inherent in these technologies is utilised throughout the economy in a rigorous fashion to raise efficiency and international competitiveness. Such competitive advantages can only be generated, however, if a broad-based application of the new multimedia is realised earlier than in Germany's leading competitors. |
