延长退休年龄还是增加缴费基数： 养老金改革的路径选择与政策效应*

随着人口老龄化加剧和预期寿命延长，我国养老保险体系面临预期养老金支付严重不足的挑战。本文基于总量视角建立基础养老金收支模型，利用中国人口预测数据，分别测算基于实施“延长退休年龄”和“增加缴费基数”两种不同的改革策略未来30年中国基础养老金的收支余额，并评估政策效果。研究结果表明，“推迟退休年龄”对缓解养老金基金支付压力作用明显，但存在增加就业压力等负外部性。“增加缴费人数”亦可以缓解养老金支付困境，且不存在负外部性，但推行时间缓慢，或将产生新的公共财政压力。

EXTENDING THE RETIREMENT AGE OR INCREASING THE PAYMENT BASE: THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PLANS

This paper made the basic income and expense model of pension from the angle of gross with expecting data of Chinese population, and then measured the payments balance and the effects of estimating policy under the policies of “extending the retirement age” and “increasing payment base” of the following 30 years from 2010. The results of study showed that “extending the retirement age” made a great function to relieve the pressure of pension payment but with negative externality such as adding employment pressure and so on. The “increasing payment base” also could relieve the puzzle of pension payment without negative externality but there was such defect as slow implement time or new public financial pressure.