Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Economics, UNSW Business School, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia;2. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan;3. Department of Economics, Deakin Business School, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia;1. University of Nottingham and GEP;2. Aston Business School;3. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, University of Kiel, Aarhus University, and IZA;4. University of Nottingham Ningbo China and GEP;1. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan;1. Lincoln Business School, University of Lincoln, UK;2. Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong |
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| Abstract: | In the last decade, more than 100 researchers have examined productivity spillovers from foreign affiliates to local firms in upstream or downstream sectors. Yet results vary broadly across methods and countries. To examine these vertical spillovers in a systematic way, we collected 3626 estimates of spillovers and reviewed the literature quantitatively. Our meta-analysis indicates that model misspecifications reduce the reported estimates and journals select relatively large estimates for publication. No selection, however, was found for working papers. Taking these biases into consideration, the average spillover to suppliers is economically significant, whereas the spillover to buyers is statistically significant but small. Greater spillovers are received by countries that have underdeveloped financial systems and are open to international trade. Greater spillovers are generated by investors who come from distant countries and have only a slight technological edge over local firms. |
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