A spatial analysis of land-use change and agriculture in eastern Canada

Publicly available statistics regarding rural demographics, rural society and land use are presented and analysed using Geographic Information System (GIS). Our aim was to provide a quantitative basis for discussion of rural policy issues such as urban encroachment. Productivity (tonnage) of crop agriculture has increased by about 230% over 40 years while that of livestock (expressed as livestock units) has remained constant. Agricultural consolidation and intensification seen in southern Ontario has not translated into economic sustainability where on-farm income declined from 1991 to 2000. However, on-farm income in southern Quebec and municipalities adjacent to Toronto increased, perhaps due to the niche markets created in these regions. The increases in agricultural activity throughout southern Ontario have occurred in regions that have been designated as sites for innovation clusters, thus providing a foundation of resources for bio-based industries to expand and innovate. Reflecting on trends of demographics and production systems we conclude that rural policy should orient its geographical delineation to regional and inter-provincial scales. Our analysis indicates that rural populations and communities are sustainable but agricultural enterprises have changed radically; they have maintained or increased productivity but lost profitability. Applying a rural landscape design to the entire region would help address the sustainability of agriculture and rural communities.