China＇s Current Real Estate Cycle and Potential Financial Risks

I. Introduction Since the late 1990s, the debate on China’s current real estate cycle has aroused great attention. The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, initiated a series of macroeconomic management policies to prevent the real estate market from overheating. Since the real estate bubble in the early 1990s, the Chinese Government is conscious to attach great importance to the possible financial risks and corresponding shocks to China’s economy of the real estate market ove…

China's Current Real Estate Cycle and Potential Financial Risks

The real estate cycle and financial stability are closely correlated. In light of global real estate bubbles, China's real estate cycle has attracted wide attention since 1998. The present paper analyzes three driving factors in the context of the current real estate cycle; namely, economic growth, macroeconomic environment and institutional establishment. Supported by econometric analysis using quarterly data from 1992–2004, the present paper indicates that real estate will develop steadily and that housing prices will consistently rise in the relative long run. Based on quantitative analysis, it is concluded that the implications of the current real estate cycle for financial stability include risks of real estate credit exposure, government guarantees and maturity mismatch. Some corresponding policy implications are discussed, such as advancing banking reform, encouraging the rational behavior of local governments and strengthening the regulation of foreign capital flows in and out of China's real estate industry. (Edited by Xinyu Fan)