基于面板数据的省域建设用地扩张驱动机制分析

为探明我国及东、中和西部地区建设用地扩张驱动因素作用机制,本文利用我国的29个省份1999-2013年数据,运用空间计量模型方法对建设用地扩张与驱动因素间的关系进行了研究。结果表明:1整体上看,人口、经济增长和固定资产投资与建设用地扩张体现为趋同效应,而产业结构调整有利于减少建设用地投入,反映地区差异政策的虚拟变量有利于促进建设用地扩张;2分区域来看,人口、经济增长和固定资产投资的作用均为正向,产业结构调整有利于东部地区减少建设用地投入,而对于中部和西部地区将促进建设用地扩张,反映政策变迁的虚拟变量对中部地区建设用地的扩张产生正向显著影响。最后,提出了东、中、西部地区差异化的对策建议为合理引导建设用地扩张提供参考。

Driving Mechanism Analysis of Provincial Construction Land Expansion Based on Panel Data

In order to explore the mechanism of impacts of driving forces on construction land expansion of China and its three economic zones, this paper analyzed the relationship between construction land expansion and its driving forces based on the panel data of 29 provinces,autonomous regions, municipalities in China during the period of 1999-2013 by the method of spatial econometric model. The results showed that: ①Overall, the growth of population, economy and fixed assets investment was in accord with construction land expansion, while industrial structure adjustment was conducive to reducing construction land, virtual variable reflecting policy difference prompted construction land expansion; ② From the regional perspective, population, economic growth and fixed assets investment had positive effect, industrial structure adjustment helped reduce construction land in eastern region and helped increase construction land in middle and west region, virtual variable reflecting policy change had positive and significant effect on construction land expansion in middle region.Finally, this paper put forward differentiated countermeasures and suggestions for three economic zones hoping to give some reference to reasonably guide expansion of construction land in practice.