This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics, School of Business, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia;2. Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece |
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| Abstract: | Many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger oil price decreases the previous quarter. When one looks at the net increase in oil prices over the year, recent data are consistent with the historical correlation between oil shocks and recessions. |
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