中国省区TFP测算及影响因素分析

本文依据1998 -2007年中国28个省区的相关数据,采用修正索洛模型和随机前沿模型测算了中国省区历年的全要素生产率水平和增长率,并利用静态和动态面板数据模型检验了R&D、人力资本、进口、出口以及外商直接投资对我国省区全要素生产率的影响.结果显示,我国省区全要素生产率水平总体呈上升趋势,而增长率则趋于下降,并且地区差距明显.地区间R&D、出口、人力资本对我国省区全要素生产率水平的提高具有显著的正向作用,而外商直接投资和进口的正向作用并不明显；出口对中国省区全要素生产率增长率的提高有明显促进作用,而进口则对其具有明显的阻碍作用,R&D、人力资本及外商直接投资对全要素生产率增长率的提高虽有促进作用,但它们在静态和动态面板数据模型中的显著性则有所差异；另外,研究还发现,中国省区全要素生产率具有显著的“滞后效应”.

TFP Calculation and Influence Factor Analysis of Chinese Provinces

According to relevant data of 28 provinces in China from 1998-2007,the paper estimates the level and growth rate of TFP of China’s provinces by applying a modified Solow model and SFA and tests the impacts of R&D,human capital,imports,exports and FDI on TFP by using static and dynamic panel data mode,the main conclusions are as follows.China’s provincial TFP overall shows an ascendant trend,but growth rate tends to decline,and regional difference is significant.R&D,exports and human capital have significant positive effects in raising the level of TFP of China’s provinces,while FDI and imports have not obvious positive role in that regard.Exports have a significant positive effect in raising the growth rate of TFP,while imports have a significant impediment.R&D,human capital and FDI have positive effects in raising the growth rate of TFP,but their significants have some differences in static and dynamic panel data model.In addition,the study also finds that TFP of Chinese provinces has a significant "lag effect".Finally,the corresponding policy suggestions are given.