对中国经济发展阶段的探讨——从刘易斯曲线、人口红利、库兹涅茨曲线角度出发

学术界对于中国经济发展阶段是否已经迎来刘易斯拐点,以及中国人口红利拐点何时到来的讨论存在较多的争议.本文从二元经济视角、人口转变视角、收入分配视角分析了刘易斯拐点、人口红利拐点、库兹涅茨转折点之间的关系,由此对中国的经济发展阶段进行了探讨.通过对农村剩余劳动力数量是否存在大幅度下降及农业工资率是否存在大幅度上升的分析,本文认为中国经济并未进入刘易斯拐点;虽然中国面临人口红利的结束,人口转变优于经济发展,但并不意味着中国劳动力的短缺;只要我国实现从人口大国向人力资本强国转变,就会抵消人口红利拐点到来的负面影响.文章最后对中国是否存在陷入“中等收入陷阱”的可能性进行了讨论

Discussion to China’s Economic Development Stages——From the Dual Economic Population Change and Income Distribution Perspective

There are lots of controversial debates about if Lewis turing point is coming in China.From the dual economic perspective,population change perspective and income distribution perspective,this article analyses the relationship among Lewis turning point,demographic dividend inflection point and Kuznets turning point.Through the two important change symbol of Lewis turning point,this paper believes that Chinese economy has not been across the Lewis turing point.On the other hand,China faces the end of the demographic dividend,and the changes demographic structure is ealier than economic development.However,it does not mean China’s labor shortage.As long as our country transfers from a populated country to a country of having powerful human capital,it will offset the negative impact of the coming demographic dividend turing point on Chinese economy.In the end,this paper analyses the possibility of "moderate income trap"in China.