新型和传统基础设施建设耦合协调:时空格局、地区差异与驱动因子

本文构建了新型和传统基础设施建设评价指标体系,分别对中国各省(区、市)的新型和传统基础设施建设水平进行评价,并基于耦合协调模型测度新老基建耦合协调程度,最后采用空间杜宾模型探究两者耦合协调度的驱动机制及空间溢出效应。结果表明:(1)2011~2019年全国各省(区、市)耦合协调度平均水平呈现稳步上升趋势;耦合协调度的区域差异呈现波动上升的趋势,其中东部地区的区域内差异是造成全国整体差异的主要原因;(2)我国省域新旧基建的耦合协调等级呈现东强西弱的空间格局,且耦合协调等级的省际差异有逐年缩小的趋势;高值集聚区域全部分布在福建、浙江、江苏等东部沿海区域,低值集聚区主要分布在新疆、西藏、青海及宁夏一些西部相对落后地区,且低值集聚区的数量呈现先降低后上升的“V型”变化;(3)全国各省(区、市)新老基建耦合协调存在显著的空间相关性,财政支出水平、市场化、城市化、产业结构及利用外资等因素均对新旧基建的耦合协调水平产生了明显的驱动作用。

Coupling and Coordination of New and Traditional Infrastructure Construction:Temporal and Spatial Patterns,Regional Differences and Driving Factors

The paper establishes a new and traditional infrastructure construction evaluation index system,respectively evaluates the new and traditional infrastructure construction levels of various provinces and cities in China,and measures the degree of coupling coordination between the new and old infrastructure based on the coupling coordination model,and finally explores the two by using the spatial Dubin model coupling coordination degree driving mechanism and spatial spillover effect.The results show that:(1)the average level of coupling coordination degree in all provinces and cities across the country from 2011 to 2019 shows a steady upward trend;the regional difference of coupling coordination degree shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the regional difference in the eastern region is the main reason for the overall difference in the country;(2)the coupling coordination level of the new and old infrastructure in my country's provinces presents a spatial pattern of strong east and weak west,and the inter-provincial differences in coupling coordination levels tend to shrink year by year;high-value agglomeration areas are all distributed in eastern coastal areas such as Fujian,Zhejiang,and Jiangsu.Low-value agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in Xinjiang,Tibet,Qinghai,and some relatively backward areas in the western part of Ningxia,and the number of low-value agglomeration areas shows a“V-shaped”change with a first decrease and then an increase;(3)the coupling coordination of new and old infrastructure in various provinces across the country has significant spatial correlation.Factors such as fiscal expenditure level,marketization,urbanization,industrial structure,and the use of foreign capital have all played a significant role in driving the level of coupling and coordination of new and old infrastructure.