财政垂直失衡与产业升级——民生性支出和新型城镇化的链式中介效应

本文基于中国2007~2019年省级面板数据,实证研究财政垂直失衡对产业升级的影响,并构建两个独立中介效应模型和一个链式多重中介效应模型,进一步考察财政垂直失衡影响产业升级的渠道。研究表明:(1)财政垂直失衡总体上不利于产业升级;(2)财政垂直失衡可通过增加民生性支出和抑制新型城镇化两个独立中介渠道对产业升级产生负向影响;(3)财政垂直失衡可以通过“增加民生性支出→抑制新型城镇化”的链式中介渠道对产业升级产生阻碍作用;(4)在链式多重中介效应中,新型城镇化的中介效应最为突出。

Financial Vertical Imbalance and Industrial Upgrading--The Chain Intermediary Effects of People's Livelihood Expenditure and New-type Urbanization

Based on China's 2007~2019 provincial panel data,the research is performed to explore the impact of fiscal vertical imbalance on industrial upgrading,and two independent intermediary effect models and a chain multiple intermediary effect model are established to further examine the channels through which fiscal vertical imbalance affects industrial upgrading.Research shows that:(1)vertical fiscal imbalance is not conducive to industrial upgrading;(2)vertical fiscal imbalance can adversely affect industrial upgrading through the two independent intermediary channels of increasing spending on people's livelihood and restraining new-type urbanization;(3)vertical fiscal imbalance can hinder industrial upgrading through the chain intermediary channel of“increasing people's livelihood expenditure→restraining new-type urbanization”;(4)among the chain multiple intermediary effects,the intermediary effect of new-type urbanization is the most prominent.