浙江省农业绿色发展的驱动因子识别与绩效评价

目的 识别浙江省农业绿色发展驱动因子间的相互关系，并对其评价结果的可靠性进行分析。方法 文章运用DEMATE方法从市场因素、农业社会化服务、生产技术、经营主体能力、绿色生产效益等五个方面选取25个指标对浙江省农业绿色发展驱动因子进行定性识别与评价，并利用模糊综合评价模型对浙江省农业绿色发展评价结果进行定量评估。结果 （1）驱动因子中心度排序为：经营主体能力＞农业社会化服务＞绿色生产效益＞生产技术＞市场因素，其中指标层前十排序依次为：新型农业经营主体数量、绿色生产能力、销售服务体系、技术服务体系、新型职业农民数量、绿色生产意识、金融服务体系、产业融合水平、经营主体收入水平、土地流转市场规范化；指标层原因度大于0的因子有13个，前三排序依次为农产品加工贮藏技术、绿色消费意愿、技术服务体系，小于0的因子有12个，后三排序依次为绿色生产意识、经营主体收入水平、生产施肥技术。（2）市场需求与农业绿色生产效益的最大隶属度为良好，农业社会化服务、生产技术、经营主体能力的最大隶属度为中等。结论 当前，浙江省农业绿色当前主导因素为经营主体能力，其次为农业社会化服务和绿色生产效益，贡献率相对较低，而生产技术和市场因素则偏重于被影响的结果因素方面。因此应切实发挥好新型经营主体的辐射带动作用，促进小农户与现代农业发展有机衔接；小农户的绿色生产意识和能力受其他因素影响较大，应合理引导农村土地流转，促进新型农业经营主体培育，促进小农生产向规模经营转变；同时引导社会资本投资农业，完善农业社会化服务体系。

IDENTIFICATION OF DRIVING FACTORS AND PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF ZHEJIANG AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT

To identify the interrelationships among the driving factors of agricultural green development in Zhejiang province, and to analyze the reliability of the evaluation results. Using the DEMATE method, 25 indicators were selected from 5 aspects including market factors, agricultural socialized services, production technology, business entity capabilities, and green production benefits to qualitatively identify and evaluate the driving factors of agricultural green development in Zhejiang province, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to quantitatively evaluate the evaluation results of agricultural green development in Zhejiang province. The results were showed as follows. (1) The driving factor identification found that the order of centrality was as follows: business entity capacity > agricultural social service > green production efficiency > production technology > market factor, and the top ten indexes were: the number of new agricultural business entities, green production capacity, sales service system, technical service system, number of new professional farmers, green production awareness, and finance service system, industrial integration level, income level of business entities and standardization of land transfer market, and there were 13 factors with the cause degree greater than 0, the first three factors were processing and storage technology of agricultural products, green consumption willingness and technical service system, and 12 factors less than 0, and the last three factors were green production awareness, income level of business entities and production and fertilization technology. (2) The performance evaluation showed that the maximum membership degree of market demand and agricultural green production benefit was good, and the maximum membership degree of agricultural socialized service, production technology and management subject ability was medium. At present, the current leading factor of agricultural green in Zhejiang province was the ability of the main body of operation, followed by agricultural socialized services and green production benefits, with a relatively low contribution rate, while production technology and market factors tend to focus on the affected result factors. Therefore, the radiant and leading role of new business entities should be effectively brought into play to promote the organic connection between small farmers and modern agricultural development; the green production awareness and ability of small farmers are greatly affected by other factors, and the transfer of rural land should be rationally guided to promote new agricultural business entities, and cultivate and promote the transformation of smallholder production to large-scale operation; at the same time, guide social capital to invest in agriculture and improve the agricultural socialized service system.