一种改进的变权重管网负荷组合预测方法

对管网负荷的准确预测是保证管网经济安全运行的前提，在总结前人大量的管网负荷预测方法的基础上，提出了基于新鲜度函数的模糊变权重组合预测管网负荷的方法。该方法是单模型预测技术的自然推广，通过将新鲜度函数引入组合预测，有效地刻画时间序列的变化趋势，从而实现对模糊自适应变权重组合预测方法的有效改进。改进后的组合预测方法不仅综合利用了各种预测方法的有用信息．而且该最佳组合预测的权系数也是时变的，是一个进一步提高预测精度的方法，该方法具有预测精度高、计算简便的特点。

An Improved variable-weight Combined Method for Predicting the Load of the Pipe Network

Predicting the load of the pipe network accurately is the prerequisite for its economic and safe operation. Based on the summary of many existing methods for predicting the load of the pipe network, this paper proposes a fuzzy variable weight combined method for predicting the load of the pipe network, which is based on the fresh function. This method is a natural extension of the single-model predicting technology. It's effectively improved by introducing the fresh function. This improved method can further increase the predicting accuracy, for its predicting weight factor is changing. This method has high predicting accuracy and easy calculation as its characteristics.