安徽出口商品结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

论文利用安徽省1988-2008年的工业制成品出口、初级产品出口和GDP的年度统计数据，从出口商品结构的角度出发，并利用协整理论、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对安徽省的出口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明，安徽出口商品与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系，工业制成品的出口对该地区的经济增长具有单向的推动作用。据此，对进一步加大安徽出口工作力度，提出了优化出口商品结构以促进安徽省经济持续稳定增长的政策建议。

Empirical Analysis between Commodity Export Structure and Economic Growth in Anhui

The relationship between export commodity structure and economic growth in Anhui Province are tested by using the analysis method of co-integration theory and Granger test of causality with the annually statistical data of the export of industrial manufactured goods and the export of primary products and GDP from 1988 to 2008. The results show that there exists a cointegration relationship between exports growth and economic growth and the effect of the export expansion of industrial manufactured goods is positive on economic growth of Anhui Province. In light of these conclusions, this paper takes some policy recommendations about the optimized structure of export commodities in order to promote sustained and steady economic growth.