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The curse of Moctezuma: American silver and the Dutch disease
Authors:Mauricio Drelichman
Institution:Department of Economics, The University of British Columbia, 997-1873 East Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z1
Abstract:This study formalizes and empirically tests the conjecture that the discovery of large silver reserves in its American colonies during the 1540s triggered in Spain a case of Dutch disease, diverting factors of production to non-traded goods industries and undermining the Spanish comparative advantages in the Early Modern Age. I develop an open-economy model to mimic the economic conditions in Imperial Spain. I then present new consumption weights built from primary sources, which I combine with existing price data to produce price indexes for traded and non-traded goods; these are then used to test the implications of the model in a Markov-switching regression framework. I identify a strong and persistent increase in the relative price of non-traded goods coinciding with the silver discoveries, lasting for almost three decades and reversing itself only after the 1575 and 1579 crown bankruptcies.
Keywords:N1  N5
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