盈余管理程度的估计模型与经验证据:一个综述

盈余管理是一个与投资者保护和会计准则制定紧密相关的重要问题,它已经成为会计乃至金融、经济领域的重要研究课题。要研究在经济上具有意义的盈余管理,其前提是估计盈余管理的程度。本文对盈余管理程度的估计方法及其相应的经验证据进行评述,文献评述结果表明,非预期应计利润模型能够估计出单个公司的盈余管理程度,但它无法估计经济上具有意义的盈余管理程度;盈余分布法是目前估计盈余管理程度的核心方法,它能够估计出整体上的盈余管理程度,但它假设真实盈余分布是光滑的。盈余管理程度估计的未来研究,需要剔除盈余指标选择以及标准化方法选择等因素的影响,解决在同时存在多个阈值情况下不同阈值之间相互关联的影响问题,并放宽模型的假设或者给假设提供直接的证据。

Estimation Models and Empirical Evidence of the Extent of Earnings Management:A Survey

Earnings management is an important issue in the field of accounting, finance and even economics since it is closely related with investor protection and accounting standard setting. Estimation of the extent of earnings management is the precondition of studying the economic consequences of earnings management. This paper reviews the extant theoretical and empirical studies on the estimation of the extent of earnings management and provides direction for future research. Relevant literature suggests that abnormal accrual estimation can detect the earnings management for some specific firms, but it cannot estimate the frequency and magnitude of earnings management for all the firms. Earnings distribution model is the core method that can estimate the extent of earnings management with real economic consequences, but assumes that the true earnings distribution is smooth. The future direction is to isolate the effect of some other factors on the discontinuity of earnings distribution, such as the choice of earnings measures and deflation methods. The interaction of different thresholds and relaxation of assumptions should also be taken into account in the future research.