基于ArcGIS的山西省暴雨灾害风险评估

选取山西省109个气象站1988—2018年气象资料,结合层级分析法和专家打分法,构建了山西省暴雨风险评估模型,并利用ArcGIS对山西暴雨风险进行评估。结果表明:山西省大部分地区年暴雨量占年降水量的比例都超过了10%,说明暴雨作为山西降水量的主要来源。山西南部大部分地区及中部吕梁、阳泉、太原地区处于高风险区,发生暴雨灾害的风险较大发生;北部大同、朔州地区处于低风险区,发生暴雨灾害的风险较小。实时开展暴雨灾害的危险性评价,有助于完善当地地质灾害气象风险评估模型,为地方政府制定防灾减灾措施提供依据。

Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster in Shanxi Province Based on ArcGIS

Based on the meteorological observation data of 1988—2018 from 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province and combined with the analytic hierarchy process method and expert scoring method,a risk assessment model for rainstorm in Shanxi Province was constructed,and ArcGIS was used to evaluate the risk of rainstorm in Shanxi.The results showed as follows:in most parts of the province,annual rainstorms accounted for more than 10%of annual precipitation,indicating that rainstorms were the main source of precipitation in Shanxi.The west of Changzhi and the southeast of Yuncheng were in high-risk areas of rainstorm disasters;Jincheng,south of central Jinan,Yangquan,Wutai County of Xinzhou,northern Luliang and other areas were in the second highest danger zone.The amount of rainstorms and the number of rainstorm days were relatively high and the danger was relatively high.North Shanxi,Taiyuan,and southwest of Yuncheng were in low-risk areas.Rainstorm disasters,as an important factor inducing flash floods and mudslides,threatened people s lives and property safety.The real-time risk assessment of rainstorm disasters was of great significance for improving the local geological disaster meteorological risk assessment model and provided a basis for local governments to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation measures.