Historical resources, uncertainty and preservation values: An application of option and optimal stopping models

State agencies and private historical organizations frequently acquire historical sites with unknown characteristics. In this paper, we provide two approaches to evaluating the preservation decision. In the first approach, we show that a historical site which is not permanently preserved provides citizens with a certain flexibility whose value can be measured as an option on the maximum between the current real estate value and the preservation value. In the second approach, we assume that the organization has an infinite planning horizon and chooses the optimal sale date. Using a contingent valuation estimate of the public's willingness to pay for preservation of a specific historical site and the real estate price, we provide simulation values of the preservation option value and the optimal stopping rule.