城镇化、区域发展不均衡与房地产价格*

现阶段，城镇化和由于区域发展不均衡所引起的人口流动对我国房价影响显著，但现有文献对该问题较少涉及，本文针对该问题进行了研究。本文首先分别从房地产市场的需求和供给出发建立模型，推导出均衡房价的决定方程，从理论上推演了各省份农村居民和外省份人口需求对本省份城镇房价的影响。在此基础上，本文对我国各省份城镇化和区域间人口流动对房价的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现：我国居民收入的提高、快速发展的城镇化进程和由于收入、福利以及基础设施在区域间分布的不均衡而引起的人口跨区域流动都在很大程度上推高了我国房价；后两者是我国房价收入比与发达国家相比偏高于发达国家的重要原因；城镇化和跨区域人口流动是我国东部地区房价上涨和房价收入比扩大的主要动力，但跨区域人口流动在中部地区，以及城镇化在西部地区对二者的影响均不显著。

URBANIZATION,UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT AND REAL ESTATE PRICE

Nowadays, urbanization and movement of population which is caused by uneven development of different districts has engendered great influence to real estate prices, but this topic has not attracted much attention in academic fields. This paper devotes to this problem. Firstly, this paper builds the theoretical model from demand and supply sides of housing market, and derives the equilibrium real estate price function to confirm the influence of urbanization and movement of population to real estate prices from the theoretical aspect. Secondly, this paper gives the empirical evidence for this problem. It shows that: the improvement of income level of urban dweller, the development of urbanization and the movement of population caused by uneven development between different districts enhance the ascendance of real estate prices. Meanwhile, the last two factors are the main reason for that the ratio of real estate price to income is much higher than that of developed countries. Lastly, urbanization and the movement of population are the main raising power of real estate price in the Eastern China, but movement of population has little influence in the real estate price in the central region of China, as well as urbanization in Western China.