国有企业的债务问题研究*

本文基于1995—2014年间A股制造业上市公司的样本数据进行实证研究，回归结果表明所有制因素对公司资本结构的选择没有显著影响，即便把资本结构区分为长期结构和短期结构亦是如此。公司的总资产收益率、有形资产比率、成长性、公司规模以及实际税率对上市公司资本结构具有显著影响，其中最主要的两个因素是公司的总资产收益率和公司规模。这说明虽然从总量数据上看国企负债的确构成了宏观债务的主体，但就制造业来说国企的债务水平和其经济特征是相匹配的，规模和总资产收益率足以解释这种高债务水平，国企过度负债说至少对制造业国有企业来说并不成立。国企债务风险可能来自平台类国企，相关的政策应该针对这类企业来设计。

RESEARCH ON THE DEBT PROBLEMS OF STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

An empirical study on the sample data of A share listed companies in manufacturing industry from 1995—2014 shows that ownership factors have no significant effect in the choice of capital structure,even if the capital structure is divided into long and short term is also trueROA,ratio of tangible assets,growth,company size and the actual tax rate have significant impacts on the capital structure of listed companiesThe two most important factors are ROA and the company scaleThe empirical results show that the state owned debt indeed constitutes the main of macro debt from the perspective of the amount of data,but in terms of manufacturing,the debt level and its economic features are matchedThe scale and ROA may sufficiently explain the high level of debtThe excessive debt of state owned enterprises said at least manufacturing is not trueSOE debt risk may come from the platform state owned enterprisesThe relevant policy should be designed for such enterprises