经济新常态下就业困难群体失业趋势研究*

本文探讨了宏观经济运行新特征对就业困难群体失业的影响。研究发现城镇失业与平均工资显著正相关，与财政支出、一年期贷款利率和平均受教育年限显著负相关，与经济增长率和全要素生产率等无显著相关性。“4050”人员、刚毕业大学生和青年农民工是三类重点困难群体，失业趋势呈现长期失业加重、失业转就业难度增大和短期失业淤积。本文建议将“就业困难群体就业比较充分”作为就业工作的重要目标，多措并举，妥善应对新常态下的失业问题。

STUDY ON THE UNEMPLOYMENT TREND OF DIFFICULTY EMPLOYMENT GROUPS IN THE NEW ECONOMY NORMAL

This paper analyzes the influences of macro economy on urban unemployment (UU for short). It finds out that there is a positive relationship between UU and average wage, there is a negative relationship among UU, fiscal expenditure, one year lending rate and average educated years, and there is none prominent relationship among UU, economic growth rate, total factor productivity. The aged persons of “4050”, new graduates and young migrant workers are focal unemployment people. The three unemployment trends are the worse long unemployment issues, the more difficulty employment and the larger risk of exacerbating unemployment. This paper suggests to set up the higher rate of employment to focal unemployment people as the goal of ouremployment work, so that China may properly handle the unemployment in the new economy normal.