中欧贸易流量影响因素与作用机制的实证分析

随着欧洲经济一体化的深化与扩大,中欧贸易取得了快速发展。欧洲内部大市场的建成和完善不仅会影响成员国的生产与贸易,也将影响中欧贸易。本文从欧盟成员国的生产和贸易结构调整入手,在引力模型框架下使用面板协整技术,就欧洲经济一体化对中欧贸易的影响程度与作用机制进行研究。结果显示:从长期来看,贸易效应、生产效应、经济规模及汇率因素对均衡的中欧贸易流量有不同程度的影响;短期在生产效应和贸易效应的共同作用下,中欧贸易顺差有扩大趋势。

Empirical Analysis on Influenial Factors and Mechanism in Sino-EU Trade Flows

Sino-EU trade grows rapidly with the deepening of European integration. The European internal market will influence both Sino-EU trade and its member countries' production and trade. With studying the adjustment of trade structure and production of EU member countries by applying the gravity model and co-integration test. This paper researches the effect and mechanism of European integration on Sino-EU trade. The conclusions show that trade effects,production effects,economic scale and exchange rates have d...