安徽省R&D投入及其结构与经济增长关系的实证研究

利用1994—2008年安徽省R&D经费投入与GDP总量的数据,运用ADL模型并结合滞后效应的概念,对安徽省R&D经费投入与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,以AIC信息准则、SC信息准则作为选择最优滞后阶数的判断标准,对R&D经费投入及经济增长两个变量的滞后期进行估计并测算。结果表明:安徽省R&D经费投入对经济增长的贡献是显著的,但R&D投入分配结构不合理,基础研究投入最少,而其对经济增长的边际贡献却最大,实验发展投入最多,而其对经济增长的边际贡献却最小,从而导致R&D投入分配效率低下,长期甚至可能无效率。

Empirical Study on Relationship between R&D Input as well as Its Structure and Economic Growth in Anhui Province

Using the annual data about R＆D input and GDP in Anhui from 1991 to 2008, this paper empirically studies the relationship between R＆D input and economic growth in Anhui by the autoregressive distributed lag model and the concept of lagging effect. And taking AIC and SC information criterion as the judgment standard to select the optimal lag order number, it estimates and calculates the lagged-time of variables of R＆D input and economic growth. The result shows that R＆D input has significant impacts on economic growth in Anhui,but the internal distri- bution of it is unreasonable. Concretely speaking, functional research input is minimum,but its marginal contribution to economic growth is maximum, and experiment and development research input is maximum, hut its marginal contribution to economic growth is minimum, which results in the low distribution efficiency of R＆D input and even the inefficiency in the long term.