我国三大地带经济波动与总体经济波动的关联性研究

针对三大地带经济波动研究的匮乏以及各地带经济波动与我国总体经济波动的密切联系,本文利用H-P滤波以及单位根检验等计量经济方法实证研究了我国三大地带的经济波动以及它们与总体经济波动的关系。研究结果表明,我国总体经济波动与三大地带经济波动在曲线走势上并没有太大差别,并且是中部地带而不是东部地带对我国总体经济波动的影响最大,而西部地带对我国总体经济波动基本上没有影响。本文还对以上研究结论给出了解释并提出了相关的政策建议。

The Relationship of Economic Fluctuations between the Three Regions and the Whole Country

Because of inefficient research on economic fluctuations in the three regions and the relationship of economic fluctuations between the three and the whole country, this paper empirically examines the economic fluctuations of the three regions and the relation between them and the whole country with the H-P Filtering wave and unit-root test method. It shows that there is not essential difference of economic fluctuation between the three regions and the whole country, it is the middle region but not the east region that affects the economic fluctuation of the whole most, and the effect of the west region on the whole can be ignored. Finally this paper provides some explanations to the conclusion and puts forward some related policies.