简论实际冲击与实物储备调控机制

实际冲击对经济周期产生的影响可以通过总供给与总需求的矛盾表现出来。实际冲击发生后，由于总供给与总需求之间存在着时间不一致性，总供给与总需求均衡关系被打破，在经济周期衰退阶段中，总供给大于总需求；在经济周期扩张阶段中，总供给小于总需求。实物储备调控作为不可逆的承诺可信的规则，具有内在的时间一致性，对于解决实际冲击造成的经济波动具有特别的意义。通过实物储备稳定功能、应急功能、蓄水池功能作用的发挥，可以大幅度降低经济周期的波动幅度，有效地避免实际冲击带来的灾难性损失。

Real Shock and Regulating Mechanism about Entity Reserve

The real shock to the economic cycle can be reflected by contradictions between the aggregate supply and aggregate demand.The balanced relations between the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand are broken because of their time-inconsistency after the real shock occurs.During economic cycle declining,the aggregate supply is bigger than the aggregate demand.During economic cycle expanding,the aggregate supply is smaller than the aggregate demand.The macroeconomic policy effect is not good at economic cyc...