Central bank forecasts and private expectations: An empirical assessment from three emerging economies |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Fluminense Federal University - Department of Economics, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), Brazil;2. Federal University of Ceará - Department of Economics, Fortaleza, Brazil;1. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China;2. College of Business, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV 89557, USA;1. Accident Compensation Corporation, Wellington, New Zealand;2. School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Building 80, Level 11, 445 Swanston Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia;1. School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Shaanxi, China;2. Business School, University of Jinan, China;3. Finance Research Institute, Shandong Collaborative Innovation Center for Capital Market Innovation and Development, University of Jinan, China;1. INCEIF, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;2. Taylor''s Business School, Taylor''s University, Malaysia;3. Nottingham University Business School, University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Semenyih, Malaysia;4. Suleman Dawood School of Business, Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Lahore, Pakistan;1. Musashi University, Japan;2. University of Tokyo, Japan;3. Kwansei Gakuin University, Japan;1. Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, 430073, Hubei, China;2. Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou, China;3. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China;4. College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430073, Hubei, China |
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| Abstract: | As part of their monetary policy strategy, many central banks are attempting to manage private sector expectations about key macroeconomic variables. In this article, we investigate whether forecasts provided by central banks in three inflation targeting emerging economies (Brazil, Mexico, and Poland) affect the expectations of private forecasters. In particular, we analyze whether the disagreement between the central bank and private sector forecasts applies to explain changes in private sector expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. The findings show that while central bank forecasts are higher than those made by private sector forecasters, the result is an update upwards of private forecasts and that this effect is stronger for GDP growth forecasts than for inflation forecasts. |
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| Keywords: | Inflation and economic growth forecasts Central bank and private sector Expectations channel Monetary policy E58 E37 E52 |
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