The impact of terrorism on European tourism |
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| Institution: | 1. DCU Business School, Dublin City University, Dublin 9, Ireland;2. Centre of Aviation Research, School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, University of Surrey, UK;3. Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland;4. University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia;5. Institute of Business Research, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, 59C Nguyen Dinh Chieu, Ward 6, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam |
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| Abstract: | This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types. |
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| Keywords: | Terrorism European aviation industry Tourism flows ARMA-GARCH |
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