我国城镇居民增收对农业发展农民增收的实证分析

文章以我国1978年-2007年的数据,运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了城镇居民收入对农民收入的影响.研究发现:城镇居民收入的增加无论在短期和长期对农民收入都有正向作用,这表明,虽然城镇居民收入增长中存在削减农民收入的"切蛋糕效应",但更重要的是其带动农民收入增加的"做蛋糕效应".另外,农民收入都是影响自身未来收入的重要变量,这意味着,当农民收入达到一定水平后,便能形成一个促进自身收入持续增加的一个自我增进机制;相反,如果农民收入水平低,或者一个意外冲击造成其贫困,这就可能使该居民被"锁定"贫困.

Empirical Analysis on Contribution of Urban Resident Income Growth to Agriculture Development and Peasants Income Increase

Based on the data during the years 1978-2006,using cointegration analysis,Granger causality tests and impulse response function,this article studied the influence of urban resident income on the peasant income.It's found that the income of urban residents had positive effect on the income of peasant in short-term and long-term,which indicated that though income increase of towners has "cake-cutting"effect on peasant income,the more important is that it had a "cake-making"effect to drive the income increase ...