| 基于季节调整模型的我国铁路客运量波动分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 桂文林,韩兆洲. 基于季节调整模型的我国铁路客运量波动分析[J]. 铁道运输与经济, 2011, 33(2): 78-82 |
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| 作者姓名： | 桂文林 韩兆洲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 惠州学院,数学系,广东,惠州,516007
2. 暨南大学统计系,广东,广州,510632 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省哲学社会科学基金(09E-04); 广东省自然科学基金(9151051501000066) |
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| 摘 要： | 在研究TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型计算方法的基础上,基于我国铁路2002年1月—2010年2月的客运量月度数据,应用Demetra软件,通过季节调整模型参数设置、模型的估计和检验,得到2010年3月—2012年2月的铁路客运量预测值,并对预测结果进行趋势性和季节性分析。研究结果表明,Tramo/Seats季节调整模型的预测精度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 TRAMO/SEATS模型 季节调整 客运量 |
Analysis on Fluctuation of Passenger Traffic Volume based on Seasonal Adjustment Model in China |
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| GUI Wen-lin,HAN Zhao-zhou. Analysis on Fluctuation of Passenger Traffic Volume based on Seasonal Adjustment Model in China[J]. Rail Way Transport and Economy, 2011, 33(2): 78-82 |
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| Authors: | GUI Wen-lin HAN Zhao-zhou |
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| Affiliation: | GUI Wen-lin1,HAN Zhao-zhou2(1.Maths Dept,Huizhou University,Huizhou 516007,Guangdong,China,2.Statistics Dept,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on studying the calculation method of TRAMO/SEATS seasonal adjustment model and the monthly data of railway passenger traffic volume in 2002.1-2010.2 in China,by using the Demetra software,the forecast value of railway passenger traffic volume in 2010.3-2012.2 was achieved through the parameter setup,evaluation and inspection of the seasonal adjustment model.Then the paper makes trend and seasonal analysis on the forecast results.The results show that the TRAMO/SEATS seasonal adjustment model has high... |
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| Keywords: | Railway TRAMO/SEATS Model Seasonal Adjustment Passenger Traffic Volume |
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