| 基于客流性质的铁路客流预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋嘉雯,瞿何舟. 基于客流性质的铁路客流预测方法[J]. 铁道运输与经济, 2011, 33(3): 87-90 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋嘉雯 瞿何舟 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用基于客流性质的铁路客流预测方法对银川—宁东铁路运营初期(2016年)、近期(2023年)和远期(2038年)客流情况进行预测。采用四阶段法对不同性质客流进行生成预测、分布预测和不同交通方式分担预测,通过各种性质客流的叠加,进行总体客流分析,得到研究区域全天客流变化和高峰情况,以及有关客流预测的主要指标。基于客流性质的铁路客流预测方法在客流性质区分明显的情况下,能够具有较好的精确度。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 客流预测 四阶段法 |
Forecast Method of Railway Passenger Flow Based on the Passenger Flow Character |
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| SONG Jia-wen,QU He-zhou. Forecast Method of Railway Passenger Flow Based on the Passenger Flow Character[J]. Rail Way Transport and Economy, 2011, 33(3): 87-90 |
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| Authors: | SONG Jia-wen QU He-zhou |
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| Affiliation: | SONG Jia-wen,QU He-zhou (1.College of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,Sichuan,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the forecast method of railway passenger flow based on passenger flow character,this paper forecasts the passenger flow status of Yinchuan-Ningdong railway during original operation period(2016),short-term period(2023) and long-term period(2038).By using the four-stage method,the generation forecast,distribution forecast and share forecast of different traffic mode were taken for passenger flow with different character.Through addition of passenger flow with different character,the paper carries on... |
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| Keywords: | Railway Passenger Flow Forecast Four-stage Method |
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