基于增长效应和风险效应下地方债务适度规模研究

自2015年开启地方政府债务置换以来,地方债务风险得到极大缓释、债务成本明显下降,但债务余额经历了由降反升、升势不减的态势,地方政府"开前门"加速发债问题亟须关注和审慎评估。为此,本文选取全国地方债务率、GDP增速及地区信用风险水平等数据,运用Hansen的非线性的面板门槛估计方法,从经济增长和风险效应两个维度得出地方债规模的合理区间;在此基础上考量全国各个省份地方政府债务情况和存在问题,进而提出针对性的政策建议。

Research on the Proper Scale of Local Debt Based on the Growth and Risk Effects

Since the local government debt swap was started in 2015,the local debt risk has been greatly relieved and the debt cost has dropped significantly.However,the debt balance has experienced a trend featured"from dropping to rising and keeping increasing".It is imperative to focus on and prudently evaluate the problem of accelerating"opening the front door"caused by the local government.To this end,the paper selects the data of national local debt ratio,GDP growth rate and regional credit risk level,derive a reasonable range of local debt scale from the two dimensions of economic growth and risk effect by using Hansen’s nonlinear panel threshold estimation method;based on this,the local government debt situation and the existing problems in various provinces across the country are considered.And it proposes targeted policy recommendations.