基于意愿调查的农户信贷需求是可靠的吗——以农地抵押贷款为例

意愿调查被广泛应用于对农户信贷需求尤其是创新型信贷产品需求的研究中。为了验证意愿调查结果是否可靠,本文以农地抵押贷款为例,通过随机控制实验方法模拟了贷款决策现实环境,利用298户规模农户的实验数据,比较了两轮意愿调查农户农地抵押贷款需求的差异并对其成因进行了分析。研究结果发现:意愿调查明显高估了规模农户的农地抵押贷款需求;本实验通过自然灾害模拟和贷款产品信息干预构建了接近现实的贷款决策环境,影响了规模农户的风险决策态度,进而影响了规模农户对贷款需求的表达。据此,相关研究应当完善意愿调查方案以降低假想偏差的影响,提高意愿调查结果的可靠性。

Is Farmers’Credit Demand Reliable Based on CVM--Case Study of Farmland Mortgage Loans

Contingent valuation method(CVM)is widely used to estimate farmers’credit demand,especially the demand for innovative loan products.In order to verify the reliability of the results of CVM,this paper simulates the real environment of loan decision-making by a randomized controlled experiment(RCE).Using the experimental data of 298 farmers,this paper compares two rounds of survey in measuring farmers’demand for farmland mortgage loan and analyzes the cause of the differences.The results show that the CVM overestimates the demand of large-scale farmers for farmland mortgage loan.The RCE constructs a realistic loan decision-making environment through natural disaster simulation and information intervention of loan products,which affects the risk decision-making attitude of large-scale farmers,and then corrects their expression of demand for farmland mortgage loan.Therefore,researchers should improve the standardization of survey schemes,minimize the impact of hypothetical bias,and improve the reliability of survey results.