中国储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花市场传递效应研究

文章以1978-2016年中国棉花价格、消费产量及轮入轮出数据为基础,采用联立方程模型,就储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花供需的传递效应进行实证分析。研究表明,中国棉花储备政策及轮入轮出机制对于平衡国内棉花市场供求、防止棉花价格过度波动起到积极的作用。储备棉轮入轮出机制对国内棉花产量、消费量的传递效应显著且存在一定差异,对国内棉花产量的传递效果要强于对国内棉花消费量的传递效应,产生这种差异的主要原因在于储备棉轮入轮出机制的传递路径有所不同。应坚持和完善储备棉轮入轮出机制,提升储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花需求的调控作用,实现储备棉轮入轮出机制常态化,通过明确储备棉轮入轮出机制的政策目标和市场定位,加强棉花市场信息系统建设,使储备棉轮入轮出机制成为我国棉花支持政策体系的主要手段。

Study on the Transfer Effect of Reserve Cotton Rotation Mechanism on Cotton Market

Based on the data of China's cotton price,consumption output and rotation from 1978 to 2016,this paper uses the simul taneous equation model to empirically analyze the transfer effect of the rotation mechanism of reserve cotton on cotton supply and demand.The results show that China's cotton reserve policy and rotation mechanism play a positive role in balancing the supply and demand of domestic cotton market and preventing excessive fluctuation of cotton price.There are significant and certain differ ences in the transfer effect of the reserve cotton rotation mechanism on the domestic cotton output and consumption.The transfer ef fect of the reserve cotton rotation mechanism on the domestic cotton output is stronger than that on the domestic cotton consump tion.The main reason for this is that the transfer path of the reserve cotton rotation mechanism is different.It is necessary to adhere to and improve the mechanism of reserve cotton rotation,enhance the regulatory role of this rotation mechanism on cotton demand and normalize it.The reserve cotton rotation mechanism can be the major means of the of China's cotton support policy system by clarifying its policy objectives and market positioning and stren。