电商发展对农产品进出口贸易的影响分析

农产品电商改变了农产品传统的交易方式,拓展了需求空间,降低农产品进出口贸易成本,对农产品进出口贸易扩大有一定的促进作用。本文以我国1999—2017年的统计数据对农产品网络零售交易总额、冷链物流市场规模和主要农产品进出口额之间的关系建立计量模型并展开协整分析。研究发现农产品电商的发展对农产品进出口贸易扩大有促进作用,但不是对所有的农产品都有作用。农产品电商的发展和大豆出口额、水果出口额、食用植物油的进口额不存在长期的均衡关系。因此,本文建议完善农产品电商体系,结合农产品的特征提高农产品进出口贸易国际竞争力,促进国民经济增长。

Analysis of the Impact of E-commerce Development on Agricultural Products Import and Export Trade

E-commerce has changed the traditional way of trading agricultural products,expanded the demand space,reduced the import and export trade costs of agricultural products,and promoted the expansion of agricultural products import and export trade.Based on the statistical data from 1999 to 2017 in China,this paper establishes an econometric model for the relationship between the total retail sales of agricultural products,the size of the cold chain logistics market and the import and export volume of major agricultural products,and conducts cointegration analysis to find out the development of agricultural products e-commerce has a positive effect on the expansion of agricultural products import and export trade,but not for all agricultural products.There is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of agricultural products e-commerce and the import of soybeans,the export of fruits,and the import of edible vegetable oil.Therefore,it is recommended to prefect the e-commerce system of agricultural products,combine the characteristics of agricultural products,improve the international competitiveness of agricultural products import and export trade,and promote the growth of the national economy.