中国农村减贫成效测度、分解及影响因素研究——基于分布动态学框架的CFPS数据分析

测算农村减贫成效并考察减贫成效的影响因素对我国打赢"脱贫攻坚战"具有重要的现实意义。本文基于覆盖我国东、中、西和东北四大地区的CFPS调查数据,在Quah(1997)的分布动态学(Distribution dynamics)基础上构建了完整的减贫成效分析框架。首先测算出各地区农村家庭贫困内部状态的Markov转移概率矩阵,并在此基础上构建了可分解的绝对、相对减贫指数,以综合考察各地区的农村减贫成效,随后本文通过首次构造的"条件Markov模型"进一步考察了减贫成效的影响因素。研究结果发现:(1)样本考察期内,我国各地区的农村贫困状况随着时间的积累逐渐变好,贫困发生率均有所下降;(2)减贫过程中仍存在着脱贫又返贫的现象,农村家庭的深度贫困固化问题比轻度贫困问题更加严重,意味着扶贫开发工作正式进入攻坚时期,扶贫难度加大;(3)家庭成年成员特征、家庭特征以及收入类型对农村减贫成效的影响显著性情况存在着时段和区域的异质性。其中,家庭成年成员受教育水平、家庭中是否有成员从事有薪酬的农业劳动、工资性和营业性收入对家庭的贫困状态变动具有更显著的影响。基于此,政府应贯彻落实精准扶贫,将扶贫重点放在中西部地区和处于深度贫困的家庭,另外应再调整和倾斜扶贫资源与扶贫政策,将提高农民受教育水平、增加非农业就业机会作为主要减贫途径,将促进农村工资性和营业性收入增长作为主要的政策倾斜方向。

A study on Measurement,Decomposition and Influencing Factors of Rural Poverty Reduction in China--CFPS Data Analysis Based on Distribution Dynamics Framework

It is of great practical significance for our country to win the"battle against poverty"to measure the poverty reduction effect of rural and investigate the influencing factors of poverty reduction effect.Based on the CFPS survey data covering four major regions in east,center,west and northeast China,this paper constructed a complete analysis framework of poverty reduction effect on the basis of the distribution dynamics of Quah(1997).Firstly,Markov transfer probability matrix was calculated for the internal state of rural family poverty in each region.Based on this,a decomposable absolute and relative poverty reduction index was constructed to comprehensively analyze the rural poverty reduction in each region.Then,the paper further investigated the influencing factors of poverty reduction through the conditional Markov model,which was first constructed.The results show that,first,during the sample period,The rural poverty situation in each region gradually improved with the accumulation of time,and the incidence of poverty decreased.Second,at present,there is still a phenomenon of poverty alleviation and returning to poverty.The deep-rooted poverty solidification of rural families is more serious than the mild poverty,which means the poverty alleviation work has officially entered a crucial period,making it more difficult to alleviate poverty.Third,there are time and region heterogeneity in the significant impact of adult family characteristics,family characteristics and income types on rural poverty reduction.Among them,adult family members’education level,whether any family members engaged in paid agricultural labor,and wage and operation income had a more significant impact on the change of poverty status of the family.Based on these conclusions,the government should carry out targeted poverty alleviation,and focus poverty alleviation on central and western regions and families in deep poverty.In addition,the government should readjust and give preferential treatment to poverty alleviation resources and poverty alleviation policies,the main way to reduce poverty is to improve farmers’educational level and increase non-agricultural employment opportunities,and take promoting the growth of rural wage and business income as the main preferential policy direction.