全球产业链的发展与重构:大趋势与新变化

全球金融危机后,世界经济进入深度调整期。民粹主义、贸易保护主义抬头,逆全球化浪潮来袭,叠加新冠肺炎疫情冲击,既有的全球产业链格局受到巨大挑战,并面临着组织架构、地理格局等方面的重构压力。与此同时,各国要素成本优势的相对变化和新兴技术的发展也推动全球产业链不断调整。在多方力量的相互博弈下,未来的全球产业链重构将呈现出四方面特征:第一,以市场和最终需求导向驱动的区域集聚;第二,以安全导向驱动的供应商多元化和关键产业本地化;第三,以成本和技术导向驱动的产业链梯度转移;第四,以数字技术和人工智能驱动的工业生产方式转变和服务业分工细化。

The Development and Reconstruction of the Global Industrial Chain:General Trends and New Changes

After the global financial crisis,the world economy has entered a period of deep adjustment.With the rise of Populism and Trade protectionism,the tide of anti-globalization,and the impact of the Covid-19,the existing global industrial chain structure has been greatly challenged,and it is facing the pressure of restructuring the organizational structure and geographic structure.At the same time,the relative change of various countries’factor cost and the development of emerging technologies also promote the continuous adjustment of the global industrial chain.Under the mutual game of multiple forces,the future restructuring of the global industrial chain will show four characteristics:(1)Regional agglomeration driven by market and final demand orientation;(2)Supplier diversification and key industry localization driven by safety orientation;(3)Gradient transfer of the industrial chain driven by cost and technology orientation;(4)The transformation of industrial production methods and refined products of service industry driven by digital technology and artificial intelligence.