| 上海市未来人口和人力资本的变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 庞丽华,王海涛,刘玉博,张蕾,曹桂英,郑晓瑛. 上海市未来人口和人力资本的变化趋势分析[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2006, 0(6): 1-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 庞丽华 王海涛 刘玉博 张蕾 曹桂英 郑晓瑛 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学人口研究所,北京 100871;北京大学人口研究所,北京 100871;北京大学人口研究所,北京 100871;北京大学人口研究所,北京 100871;国际应用系统分析研究所,奥地利;北京大学人口研究所,北京 100871 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用多状态模型,预测了上海市未来30年人口规模、年龄结构、城市化水平,以及人力资本的变化趋势。无论从上海市经济发展对于劳动力的需求,还是上海市的人口结构看,一定数量的迁移人口对于上海经济和人口的健康发展是有积极意义的。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口预测 人力资本 迁移 |
Trends of Population and Human Capital in Shanghai |
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| PANG Li hu,WANG Hai tao,LIU Yu bo,ZHANG Lei,CAO Gui ying and ZHENG Xiao ying. Trends of Population and Human Capital in Shanghai[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2006, 0(6): 1-11 |
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| Authors: | PANG Li hu WANG Hai tao LIU Yu bo ZHANG Lei CAO Gui ying ZHENG Xiao ying |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;International Institute for Applied System Analysis(IIASA,Austria);Institute of Population Research,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China |
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| Abstract: | Employed multi-state model,the paper projects the population size,age structure,urbanization and human capital of Shanghai in first 3 decades of twenty-first century. Population projection reveals that migration is necessary to the sustainable development of Shanghai,especially in terms of labor supply and slowing-down ageing of population. |
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| Keywords: | population projection human capital migration |
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