中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。

Comparative Study on Future Consequences of Economic Growth under the Different Fertility Level in China

The effects on economic growth influenced by population development under variety of fertility levels in the coming 90 years are simulated by utilizing the population-economic dynamic model in this paper.The simulation result is:correspondingly lower fertility will result in rapid labor force reduction,aging population overload and aggravation of labor load,which will slow down economic growth in large scale;while under correspondingly higher birth level circumstance,per capita GDP growth rate will be less than the economic growth on the scheme of middle fertility rate and per capita GDP possess greater discrepancy as well.With reference to the model establishment above,the conclusions are reached as follows:the child-bearing policy shall be improved,which can make the fertility level within the scope from 1.9 to 2.0,only when such fertility level is maintained,can China's economic growth and per capita living standard be advanced.Meanwhile,the economic growth attached to labor force incensement and capital accumulation under lower fertility level will not exist,the primary momentum for future economic growth will be technology innovation and technology progress.