关注婚姻状态变化对于生育水平的影响

分析比较了中国大陆、日本和台湾地区婚姻状态改变(有偶率下降)、有偶率下降速度、TFR达到更替水平时的有偶率水平的异同。分析了有偶率变动对生育水平的影响。目前的生育小高峰很可能已被有偶率的下降所抵消,有偶率下降已成为影响我国人口均衡发展的重要因素并为人口政策的调整留出了足够的空间。

Research on Influences of Changes of Marital Status on Fertility Level

This paper first compares the disparities and similarities of changes of marital status(the decreased rate of married women),the decreased speed of rate of married women,and the rate of married women when TFR reaches the replacement level in mainland China,Japan and Taiwan area.Then,it analyzes the influences of changes of marital status on fertility level.Finally,it points out that current round of baby boom is likely to have been offset by the decreased rate of married women.The decreased rate of married women has been an important factor that influences the balanced development of population in China and left enough space for the adjustment of population policy.