| 未来择偶男性比女性究竟多多少? |
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| 引用本文： | 陈胜利,袁建华,莫丽霞.未来择偶男性比女性究竟多多少?[J].经济学(季刊),2006(1):17-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈胜利 袁建华 莫丽霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家人口和计划生育委员会 宣传教育司, 北京 100088;国家人口和计划生育委员会 宣传教育司, 北京 100088;国家人口和计划生育委员会 宣传教育司, 北京 100088 |
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| 摘 要： | 使用人口年龄递进模型,分四种方案对男性择偶拥挤态势作了预测,对结果进行了比较。出生人口性别比升高影响择偶的重要时段在2040年前后,届时男性比女性将多出2000万左右,而壮年未婚高峰亦将以同样的规模出现在21世纪50年代。从2020年以后的几十年间,我国婚配比例将始终处在男多女少的状态,男性择偶拥挤的状况将难以改变。
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| 关 键 词： | 出生人口性别比 男性 女性 择偶拥挤程度 |
Will China Face A Big Shortage of Brides in Future? |
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| CHEN Sheng-li,YUAN Jian-hua and MO Li-xia.Will China Face A Big Shortage of Brides in Future?[J].China Economic Quarterly,2006(1):17-21. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Sheng-li YUAN Jian-hua and MO Li-xia |
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| Institution: | State Population and Family Commission,Beijing 100088,China;State Population and Family Commission,Beijing 100088,China;State Population and Family Commission,Beijing 100088,China |
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| Abstract: | Using age progression model, the paper provides and compares four type of projection on male marriage crowding. The male marriage crowding caused by high sex ratio at birth will hit the peak around 2040 with 2000 male outreaching female, while the unmarried male will get the same size in 2050s. In the several decades after 2020, China will face the shortage of brides. |
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| Keywords: | sex ratio at birth male female marriage crowding |
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