中国人口老龄化过程中的人力资本变迁

从动态的视角考察了我国未来人口老龄化过程中的人力资本变迁。与以往研究不同的是,引入人均劳动能力期这一要素,使人力资本的测量体现年龄结构变化的作用,以检验老龄化过程对人力资本的影响。我国人力资本在1980—2000年快速增长,2000—2020年增长趋缓,2020年之后则会逐渐出现负增长。年龄结构是影响人力资本增长的重要因素。通过对高、中、低三种生育水平方案下人力资本变迁的比较,看到不同老龄化程度对人力资本影响的差异。

The Change of Human Capital in the Future Aging of Chinese Population

This article mainly studies the change of human capital in China' s future aging process in a dynamic way. Different from previous studies,it introduces a new factor-per capita labor year,which makes the age structure play a role in the measure of the human capital,so as to reveal the effect of aging on the human capital. As the study shows,China's human capital had been developing rapidly from 1980 to 2000,but has been slowing down in the first 2 decades of the 21 st century, and will be on downtrend after 2020. In the aging process,age structure has been a crucial factor influencing the human capital. Moreover,the effect of different degrew of aging on human capital is also demonstrated in this article by comparing the change of human capital in three different fertility scenarios,high,medial,low.