中国人口出生性别比的空间计量分析

利用中国2000年人口普查数据中各省市的人口出生性别比数据,定量检验了经济、教育、医疗及计划生育政策等因素对人口出生性别比的影响。人口出生性别比在地理上存在集聚现象,空间地理因素对其影响显著;教育和医疗水平对出生性别比的直接影响较小,但它们会通过空间地理因素、经济和计划生育政策等因素间接影响出生性别比。计划生育政策对人口出生性别比的影响最显著。经济及医疗水平越高出生性别比越低,教育水平越高出生性别比越高,计划生育政策越宽松出生性别比越低。

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Sex Ratio at Birth of the Population in China

By using sex ratio at birth data of 2000 census of China,the paper quantitatively identified impacts of the economy,education,health care and family planning policies on sex ratio at birth.The results show that sex ratio at birth exists the geographical concentration and there is a significant impact of spatial factor on sex ratio;the direct impacts of education and health care on the sex ratio at birth are less,but they will indirectly affect sex ratio at birth through spatial geographic factor,economic factor and family planning policy;the impact of family planning policy on the sex ratio at birth is the most significant;The higher the level of economy and health care,the lower sex ratio at birth;the higher the level of education,the higher sex ratio at birth;the more relaxed family planning policy,the lower sex ratio at birth.