政策监管与合规转型对P2P平台成交量的异质性冲击效应

以《网络借贷信息中介机构业务活动管理暂行办法》为背景检验监管政策与平台合规转型对P2P平台成交量的影响,研究结果发现：《暂行办法》的出台对P2P平台成交量构成显著激励效应,且这一激励作用在国资系、上市系及银行系等特殊背景平台、设有活期标的平台、高管曾在其他企业有高管任职经历的平台中更突出;对监管冲击下平台合规转型对其成交量的影响进行了因果推断,验证了合规转型对平台成交具有正向激励效应,但该激励作用仅对早期主动转型的平台成立;尽管合规转型会导致P2P投资人在该平台上的投资规模决策更激进,但却会降低投资人的平均投资期限,说明合规转型会引发投资人在规模决策与期限决策上的相机抉择过程,这也首次证明了P2P市场投资存在“期限决策”与“规模决策”之间的“风险替代”效应。

Heterogeneous Impact of Policy Supervision and Compliance Transformation on transaction scale of China's P2P platforms

This paper, taking a special regulatory policy released in China's P2P market as a natural experiment, valuate the impact of policy introduction and the effect of platforms' compliance process on the change of platforms' transaction scale. The main findings are that:(1)The introduction of the policy had a significant positive impact on the volume of P2P platforms, and it was more significant for the platforms with specific backgrounds, platforms with current bid, and platforms whose executives have had worked as senior manager in other companies. (2)By using DID specification and treatment effects, this paper test the causal relationship between platforms' compliance process and transaction scale, and found compliance transformation has a positive effect on transaction scale, although it was only effective for those join in bank escrow earlier. (3)Although joining bank escrow leads investors to invest more,it reduces the average investment period which means that the process of compliance transformation can influence the decision between scale and period. This paper proves that there was a risk substitution effect between period decision and scale decision for the first time.