绿色海洋经济效率时空演变与趋同分析——基于沿海53个城市面板数据

绿色海洋经济效率提升是海洋经济高质量发展的重要表现和结果,揭示其演变规律对于推动实施海洋经济高质量发展战略具有重要意义。以沿海53个城市2001—2017年面板数据为对象,采用非期望超效率SBM、核密度估计以及马尔科夫链等方法,测算并分析绿色海洋经济效率演变规律。结果表明：从效率时空演变特征来看,整体水平和地区差异由剧烈波动逐渐稳定;南部和北部地区效率类型集聚性增强,东部地区呈现两极分化;当前城市绿色海洋经济效率处于中低和中高水平居多,分布格局与如今环渤海、长三角、珠三角经济圈一致。从效率趋同规律来看,不考虑邻域水平时,稳定在原类型概率很大,俱乐部趋同效应显著,很难发生类型转移;考虑邻域水平时,俱乐部趋同特征在不同邻域水平下有所差异。

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Convergence Analysis of Green Marine Economic Efficiency: Based on the Panel Data of 53 Coastal Cities

The efficiency improvement of Green Marine Economy (GME) is an important manifestation and the result of the high-quality development of marine economy. It is of great significance to reveal its evolution law for promoting the implementation of the high-quality development strategy of marine economy. Based on the panel data of 53 coastal cities from 2001 to 2017, the evolution rules of GME efficiency were calculated and analyzed by using the methods of undesired super-efficiency SBM, kernel density estimation and Markov Chain. The results show that: from the perspective of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of efficiency, the overall level and regional differences are gradually stable from drastic fluctuations. The agglomeration of efficiency types in the southern and northern regions is enhanced, while in the eastern region it is polarized. At present, the urban GME efficiency is mostly at medium to low and medium to high levels, and its distribution pattern is consistent with that of Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta economic circles. From the perspective of efficiency convergence law, when the neighborhood level is not taken into account, the probability of stability in the original type is very large, the club convergence effect is significant, and the type transfer is rare. When considering the neighborhood level, the convergence characteristics of clubs are different at different neighborhood levels.