Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future

The paper uses analysis of the mass emigration from poor Europe in the late nineteenth century to project the future mass emigration potential from Africa, especially to the economically more mature Mediterranean economies. The economic and demographic fundamentals driving both experiences are likely to be the same, but their magnitudes are likely to be far bigger in the African case over the next few decades. Efforts to restrict the migration and to seal porous borders may be partially successful; but, if so, they are certain to create unpleasant side–effects. European restrictions will create a greater share of illegals and thus greater absorption problems in recipient nations: European restrictions will create more poverty in African sending regions. And European restrictions will create considerable diplomatic problems between the two regions.