涉外税收政策、GDP和产业结构关系的实证研究

本文使用1992～2009年的年度样本数据,通过向量自回归模型,运用协整检验分析、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解分析三种方法对我国自改革开放以来的涉外税收政策对GDP和产业结构的影响进行了实证分析,并得出结论：涉外税收政策与GDP和产业结构之间存在长期的均衡关系;涉外税收政策对GDP的影响作用比较明显,但对产业结构的影响不确定。因此,我国需要进一步完善涉外税收政策,以此推动GDP进一步改善,促进产业结构合理调整。

Empirical Research on Relationship of Foreign-related Taxation Policy and GDP and Industrial Structure

This paper make an empirical analysis about influence of foreign-related taxation policy on GDP and industrial structure since reform and opening-up based on the annual sample data of China from 1992 to 2009 since reform and open-ing-up,and using the methods of cointegration test analysis,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analy-sis.The result demonstrates foreign-related tax policy and GDP and industrial structure between them has the long-term e-quilibrium relationship;the effect of foreign-related taxation policy on GDP is quite obvious,but the influence on the indus-trial structure is uncertain.Therefore,China needs to further improve foreign-related taxation policies to promote GDP to fur-ther improve and promote rational adjustment of industrial structure.